Nothing to talk about this week, alas.
Someone close died last week, after a long and difficult illness. What can one say? It happens to all of us, but the reality of it is not just some abstract concept. One day, you can talk to someone, and the next day they are gone.
One day, our shiny civilization is humming along, and one day, it may not be so shiny. One day you can talk to people around the world in an instant, and one day, you may not. The bit from Ecclesiastes mentioned a while ago still rings true.
“Vanity of vanities, all is vanity.”
Still, we eat, we drink, we make merry. We are an odd species, to say the least. Curious to know how the future will look upon all of this, just as many of us wonder how people will look upon us when we are gone (individually).
(Folks with skin in the game; en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paddy_Power#/media/File:Paddy_Power_logo.png)
One of the points that Taleb makes that is of great import is that unless you have skin in the game, you should shut up. The folks who have the ultimate skin in the game, besides those who are “in the line of fire” or the equivalent are those who put their money where their mouth is, and bet real money on real events. The folks at PaddyPower, as silly as the name might sound, are at least those who are doing just that.
Like it or not, it is going to be an interesting four years, if the odds makers are at least somewhat correct.
- Is betting on events a good way to predict the future? These folks certainly aren’t going out of business, so they must be doing something correct.
- They have been wrong before, of course. Do you think they are wrong here?