(Folks with skin in the game; en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paddy_Power#/media/File:Paddy_Power_logo.png)
One of the points that Taleb makes that is of great import is that unless you have skin in the game, you should shut up. The folks who have the ultimate skin in the game, besides those who are “in the line of fire” or the equivalent are those who put their money where their mouth is, and bet real money on real events. The folks at PaddyPower, as silly as the name might sound, are at least those who are doing just that.
Like it or not, it is going to be an interesting four years, if the odds makers are at least somewhat correct.
- Is betting on events a good way to predict the future? These folks certainly aren’t going out of business, so they must be doing something correct.
- They have been wrong before, of course. Do you think they are wrong here?